Comparative Reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in three African countries using a mathematical model integrating immunity data

Abstract

ABSTRACTObjectivesAfrica has experienced fewer coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths than other regions, with a contrasting epidemiological situation between countries, raising questions regarding the determinants of disease spread in Africa.MethodWe built a susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered model including COVID-19 mortality data where recovery class is structured by specific immunization and modeled by a partial differential equation considering the opposed effects of immunity decline and immunization. This model was applied to Tunisia, Senegal, and Madagascar.FindingSenegal and Tunisia experienced two epidemic phases. Initially, infections emerged in naive individuals and were limited by social distancing. Variants of concern (VOCs) were also introduced. The second phase was characterized by successive epidemic waves driven by new VOCs that escaped host immunity. Meanwhile, Madagascar demonstrated a different profile, characterized by longer intervals between epidemic waves, increasing the pool of susceptible individuals who had lost their protective immunity. The impact of vaccination in Tunisia and Senegal on model parameters was evaluated.InterpretationLoss of immunity and vaccination-induced immunity have played crucial role in controlling the African pandemic. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has become endemic now and will continue to circulate in African populations. However, previous infections provide significant protection against severe diseases, thus providing a basis for future vaccination strategies.