The kinetic Ising model encapsulates essential dynamics of land pattern change

Abstract

AbstractA land pattern change represents a globally significant trend with implications for the environment, climate, and societal well-being. While various methods have been developed to predict land change, our understanding of the underlying change processes remains inadequate. To address this issue, we investigate the suitability of the 2D kinetic Ising model (IM), an idealized model from statistical mechanics, for simulating land change dynamics. We test the IM on a variety of diverse thematic contexts. Specifically, we investigate four sites characterized by distinct patterns, presumably driven by different physical processes. Each site is observed on eight occasions between 2001 and 2019. Given the observed pattern at timesti,i= 1, …, 7, we find two parameters of the IM such that the model-evolved land pattern atti+1resembles the observed land pattern at that time. Our findings indicate that the IM produces approximate matches to the observed patterns in terms of layout, composition, texture, and patch size distributions. Notably, the IM simulations even achieve a high degree of cell-scale pattern accuracy in two of the sites. Nevertheless, the IM has certain limitations, including its inability to model linear features, account for the formation of new large patches, and handle pattern shifts.