Increased airborne transmission of COVID-19 with new variants, Implications for health policies

Abstract

AbstractNew COVID-19 variants, either of higher viral load such as delta or higher contagiousness like omicron, can lead to higher airborne transmission than historical strains. This paper highlights their implications for health policies, based on a clear analytical understanding and modeling of the airborne contamination paths, of the dose following exposure, and the importance of the counting unit for pathogens, itself linked to the dose-response law. Using the counting unit of Wells, i.e. the quantum of contagium, we develop the conservation equation of quanta which allows deriving the value of the quantum concentration at steady state for a well-mixed room. The link with the monitoring concentration of carbon dioxide is made and used for a risk analysis of a variety of situations for which we collected CO2 time-series observations. The main conclusions of these observations are that 1) the present norms of ventilation, are both insufficient and not respected, especially in a variety of public premises, leading to high risk of contamination and that 2) air can often be considered well-mixed. Finally, we insist that public health policy in the field of airborne transmission should be based on a multi parameter analysis such as the time of exposure, the quantum production rate, mask wearing and the infector proportion in the population in order to evaluate the risk, considering the whole complexity of dose evaluation. Recognizing airborne transmission requires thinking in terms of time of exposure rather than in terms of proximal distance.HighlightsRelative airborne risk assessment following variant viral load and contagiousnessIndoor analytical risk assessment including absence of ventilationAdequacy of the present norms of ventilation to Covid-19 pandemicObservation of non-compliance to standards concerning CO2 Indoor Air Quality