Impact of voluntary risk-mitigation behaviour on transmission of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundThe Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 infection poses substantial challenges to public health. In England, “plan B” mitigation measures were introduced in December 2021 including increased home working and face coverings in shops, but stopped short of restrictions on social contacts. The impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on future SARS-CoV-2 burden is unknown.MethodsWe developed a rapid online survey of risk mitigation behaviours during the winter 2021 festive period and deployed in two longitudinal cohort studies in the UK (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and TwinsUK/Covid Symptom Study (CSS) Biobank) in December 2021. Using an individual-based, probabilistic model of COVID-19 transmission between social contacts with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant parameters and realistic vaccine coverage in England, we describe the potential impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave in England in terms of the effective reproduction number and cumulative infections, hospital admissions and deaths. Using survey results, we estimated in real-time the impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on the Omicron wave in England, if implemented for the entire epidemic wave.ResultsOver 95% of survey respondents (NALSPAC=2,686 and NTwins=6,155) reported some risk mitigation behaviours, with vaccination and using home testing kits reported most frequently. Less than half of those respondents reported that their behaviour was due to “plan B”. We estimate that without risk mitigation behaviours, the Omicron variant is consistent with an effective reproduction number between 2.5 and 3.5. Due to the reduced vaccine effectiveness against infection with the Omicron variant, our modelled estimates suggest that between 55% and 60% of the English population could be infected during the current wave, translating into between 15,000 and 46,000 cumulative deaths, depending on assumptions about vaccine effectiveness. We estimate that voluntary risk reduction measures could reduce the effective reproduction number to between 1.8 and 2.2 and reduce the cumulative number of deaths by up to 24%.ConclusionsWe conclude that voluntary measures substantially reduce the projected impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, but that voluntary measures alone would be unlikely to completely control transmission.