Range-wide variation in local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity of fitness-related traits in Fagus sylvatica and their implications under climate change

Abstract

ABSTRACTAimTo better understand and more realistically predict future species distribution ranges, it is critical to account for local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity in populations’ responses to climate. This is challenging because local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity are trait-dependent and traits co-vary along climatic gradients, with differential consequences for fitness. Our aim is to quantify local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity of vertical and radial growth, leaf flushing and survival across Fagus sylvatica range and to estimate each trait contribution to explain the species occurrence.LocationEuropeTime period1995 – 2014; 2070Major taxa studiedFagus sylvatica L.MethodsWe used vertical and radial growth, flushing phenology and mortality of Fagus sylvatica L. recorded in BeechCOSTe52 (>150,000 trees). Firstly, we performed linear mixed-effect models that related trait variation and co-variation to local adaptation (related to the planted populations’ climatic origin) and phenotypic plasticity (accounting for the climate of the plantation), and we made spatial predictions under current and RCP 8.5 climates. Secondly, we combined spatial trait predictions in a linear model to explain the occurrence of the species.ResultsThe contribution of plasticity to intra-specific trait variation is always higher than that of local adaptation, suggesting that the species is less sensitive to climate change than expected; different traits constrain beech’s distribution in different parts of its range: the northernmost edge is mainly delimited by flushing phenology (mostly driven by photoperiod and temperature), the southern edge by mortality (mainly driven by intolerance to drought), and the eastern edge is characterised by decreasing radial growth (mainly shaped by precipitation-related variables in our model); considering trait co-variation improved single-trait predictions.Main conclusionsPopulation responses to climate across large geographical gradients are trait-dependent, indicating that multi-trait combinations are needed to understand species’ sensitivity to climate change and its variation across distribution ranges.