Symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens of public health concern: a review of the evidence

Abstract

AbstractSymptom propagation occurs when the symptom set an individual experiences is correlated with the symptom set of the individual who infected them. Symptom propagation may dramatically affect epidemiological outcomes, potentially causing clusters of severe disease. Conversely, it could result in chains of mild infection, generating widespread immunity with minimal cost to public health.Despite accumulating evidence that symptom propagation occurs for many respiratory pathogens, the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Here we conducted a scoping literature review for 14 respiratory pathogens to ascertain the extent of evidence for symptom propagation by two mechanisms: dose-severity relationships and route-severity relationships.We identify considerable heterogeneity between pathogens in the relative importance of the two mechanisms, highlighting the importance of pathogen-specific investigations. For almost all pathogens, including influenza and SARS-CoV-2, we found support for at least one of the two mechanisms. For some pathogens, including influenza, we found convincing evidence that both mechanisms contribute to symptom propagation.Furthermore, infectious disease models traditionally do not include symptom propagation. We summarise the present state of modelling advancements to address the methodological gap. We then investigate a simplified disease outbreak scenario, finding that under strong symptom propagation, quarantining mildly infected individuals can have negative epidemiological implications.