Climate and urbanization drive changes in the habitat suitability ofSchistosoma mansonicompetent snails in Brazil

Abstract

ABSTRACTSchistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused bySchistosomaparasites.Schistosomaare obligate parasites of freshwaterBiomphalariasnails, so controlling snail populations is critical to reducing transmission risk. As snails are sensitive to environmental conditions, we expect their distribution is significantly impacted by global change. Here, we leveraged machine learning, remote sensing, and 30 years of snail occurrence records to map the historical and current distribution of competentBiomphalariathroughout Brazil. We identified key features influencing the distribution of suitable habitat and determined howBiomphalariahabitat has changed with climate and urbanization over the last three decades. Our models show that climate change has driven broad shifts in snail host range, whereas expansion of urban and peri-urban areas has driven localized increases in habitat suitability. Elucidating change inBiomphalariadistribution – while accounting for non-linearities that are difficult to detect from local case studies – can help inform schistosomiasis control strategies.