Prediction of Suicidal Ideation in the Canadian Community Health Survey - Mental Health Component Using Deep Learning

Abstract

AbstractIntroductionSuicidal ideation (SI) is prevalent in the general population, and is a prominent risk factor for suicide. However, predicting which patients are likely to have SI remains a challenge. Deep Learning (DL) may be a useful tool in this context, as it can be used to find patterns in complex, heterogeneous, and incomplete psychiatric datasets. An automated screening system for SI could help prompt clinicians to be more attentive to patients at risk for suicide.MethodsUsing the Canadian Community Health Survey - Mental Health Component, we trained a DL model based on 23,859 survey responses to predict lifetime SI on an individual patient basis. Models were created to predict both lifetime and last 12 month SI. We reduced 582 possible model parameters captured by the survey to 96 and 21 feature versions of the models. Models were trained using an undersampling procedure that balanced the training set between SI and non-SI respondents; validation was done on held-out data.ResultsAUC was used as the main model metric. For lifetime SI, the 96 feature model had an AUC of 0.79 and the 21 feature model had an AUC of 0.75. For SI in the last 12 months the 96 feature model had an AUC of 0.76 and the 21 feature model had an AUC of 0.69. DL outperformed random forest classifiers.DiscussionAlthough requiring further study to ensure clinical relevance and sample generalizability, this study is a proof-of-concept for the use of DL to improve prediction of SI. This kind of model would help start conversations with patients which could lead to improved care and, it is hoped, a reduction in suicidal behavior.