Management performance mapping and the value of information for regional prioritization of management interventions

Abstract

ABSTRACTPolicymakers and donors often need to identify the locations and settings where technologies are most likely to have important effects, to increase the benefits from agricultural development or extension efforts. Higher quality information may help to target the high-payoff locations. The value of information (VOI) in this context is formalized by evaluating the results of decision making guided by a set of information compared to the results of acting without taking the information into account. We present a framework for management performance mapping that includes evaluating the VOI for decision making about geographic priorities in regional intervention strategies, in case studies of Andean and Kenyan potato seed systems. We illustrate use of Bayesian network models and recursive partitioning to characterize the relationship between seed health and yield responses and environmental and management predictors used in studies of seed degeneration. These analyses address the expected performance of an intervention based on geographic predictor variables. In the Andean example, positive selection of seed from asymptomatic plants was more effective at high altitudes in Ecuador. In the Kenyan example, there was the potential to target locations with higher technology adoption rates and with higher potato cropland connectivity, i.e., a likely more important role in regional epidemics. Targeting training to high performance areas would often provide more benefits than would random selection of target areas. We illustrate how assessing the VOI can help inform targeted development programs and support a culture of continuous improvement for interventions.