Long-term changes in human mobility responses to COVID-19-related information in Japan

Abstract

AbstractHow human behaviour has changed over the long term in response to COVID-19-related information, such as the number of COVID-19-infected cases and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), is under-researched. It is also unclear how increasing vaccination rates have affected human mobility. We estimate human mobility responses to such COVID-19-related information via the interactive effects model, using publicly available daily data on ‘human mobility for retail and recreation’ and ‘residential spent time’ in each Japanese prefecture. The results show that Japanese citizens were generally fearful in the first wave of unknown infection; however, they gradually became habituated to similar infection information during the subsequent waves. Nevertheless, the level of habituation decreased in response to different infection information: new variants. In contrast, as for NPIs, it is more plausible to consider that human mobility responds to varying requests rather than habituating them. We also find that rapid vaccination promotion reassures people to go out. Furthermore, we are the first to identify the spatial spillovers of infection information on human mobility responses, as well as heterogeneous responses during different phases of infection. A rapid vaccination policy and detailed monitoring of human mobilities will be useful during long-term pandemics. Long-term analysis is crucial for evidence-based policymaking.