Warming undermines emergence success in a threatened alpine stonefly: a multi-trait perspective on vulnerability to climate change

Abstract

Species vulnerability to global warming is often assessed using short-term metrics such as the critical thermal maximum (CTmax), which represents an organism’s ability to survive extreme heat. However, an understanding of the long-term effects of sub-lethal warming is an essential link to fitness in the wild, and these effects are not adequately captured by metrics like CTmax. The meltwater stonefly, Lednia tumana, is endemic to high-elevation streams of Glacier National Park, MT, USA, and has long been considered acutely vulnerable to climate change-associated stream warming. In 2019, it was listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. This presumed vulnerability to warming was challenged by a recent study showing that nymphs can withstand short-term exposure to temperatures as high as ~27 °C. But how this short-term tolerance relates to chronic, long-term warming has remained unclear. By measuring fitness-related traits at several ecologically relevant temperatures over several weeks, we show that L. tumana cannot complete its life-cycle at temperatures well below the CTmax values measured for its nymphs. Although warmer temperatures maximized growth rates, they appear to have a detrimental impact on other key traits (survival, emergence success, and wing development), thus extending our understanding of L. tumana’s vulnerability to climate change. Our results call into question the use of CTmax as a measure of thermal sensitivity, while highlighting the power and complexity of multi-trait approaches to assessing climate vulnerability.