Effects of behavioral restrictions on COVID-19 spread

Author:

Sasaki KenjiORCID,Ikeda YoichiORCID,Nakano TakashiORCID

Abstract

AbstractSeveral measures including behavioral restrictions for individuals have been taken to control the spread of COVID-19 all over the world. The aim of these measures is to prevent infected persons from contacting with susceptible persons. Since the behavioral restrictions for all citizens, such as the city-wide lockdown, are directly linked to stagnation of economic activities, the assessment of such measures is crucial. In order to evaluate the effects of behavioral restrictions, we employ the broken-link model to compare the situation of COVID-19 in Shanghai where the lockdown was implemented from March to June 2022 with it in Taiwan where a spread of COVID-19 was known to be well controlled so far. The result shows that the small link-connection probability is achieved by substantial isolation of infected person including the lockdown measures. Although the strict measures for behavioral restrictions are effective to reduce the total infected people, the daily confirmed cases follow the curve which is evaluated by the broken-link model. This result is considered as unavoidable infections for population.

Publisher

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

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