Drivers ofIxodes ricinuspopulation dynamics in Northeast France: a Bayesian modelling approach

Author:

Kim YounjungORCID,Jaulhac BenoîtORCID,Vesga Juan FORCID,Zilliox Laurence,Boulanger NathalieORCID,Edmunds W JohnORCID,Métras RaphaëlleORCID

Abstract

AbstractIxodes ricinusis the primary vector for Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis across Europe. To better understand the environmental and ecological drivers of its population dynamics, we collected monthly tick density data over ten years (2013–2022) in four sites in Northeast France, whereI. ricinushas established, and developed and fitted a mathematical model using a Bayesian approach. Our model estimated oviposition, hatching, and moulting rates across a range of temperature or saturation deficit, as well as questing and vertebrate host contact rates. Furthermore, we showed the importance of diapause in reproducing the observed seasonal population dynamics. Finally, model projections indicated a significant decrease inI. ricinusabundance over the next 20 years under several climate change scenarios. This study elucidatesI. ricinuspopulation dynamics in Northeast France, provides foundations for developing models ofI. ricinus-borne pathogen transmission, and is adaptable to otherIxodidaepopulations of public health significance.

Publisher

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

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