Abstract
AbstractIxodes ricinusis the primary vector for Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis across Europe. To better understand the environmental and ecological drivers of its population dynamics, we collected monthly tick density data over ten years (2013–2022) in four sites in Northeast France, whereI. ricinushas established, and developed and fitted a mathematical model using a Bayesian approach. Our model estimated oviposition, hatching, and moulting rates across a range of temperature or saturation deficit, as well as questing and vertebrate host contact rates. Furthermore, we showed the importance of diapause in reproducing the observed seasonal population dynamics. Finally, model projections indicated a significant decrease inI. ricinusabundance over the next 20 years under several climate change scenarios. This study elucidatesI. ricinuspopulation dynamics in Northeast France, provides foundations for developing models ofI. ricinus-borne pathogen transmission, and is adaptable to otherIxodidaepopulations of public health significance.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Reference45 articles.
1. The biology of Ixodes ricinus with emphasis on its ecology;Ticks and Tickborne Diseases,2023
2. Estrada-Peña An , Mihalca AD , Petney TN . Ticks of Europe and North Africa: A Guide to Species Identification. 1st ed. Cham: Springer International Publishing : Imprint: Springer,; 2017. p. 1 online resource (XXI, 404 pages).
3. An estimate of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Western Europe†;Journal of Public Health,2016
4. Spatiotemporal spread of tick-borne encephalitis in the EU/EEA, 2012 to 2020;Eurosurveillance,2023
5. A modified matrix model to describe the seasonal population ecology of the European tick Ixodes ricinus;Journal of Applied Ecology,2011