Eruptive insect outbreaks from endemic populations under climate change

Author:

Brush MicahORCID,Lewis Mark A.ORCID

Abstract

AbstractInsects, especially forest pests, are frequently characterized by eruptive dynamics. These types of species can stay at low, endemic population densities for extended periods of time before erupting in large-scale outbreaks. We here present a mechanistic model of these dynamics for mountain pine beetle. This extends a recent model that describes key aspects of mountain pine beetle biology coupled with a forest growth model by additionally including a fraction of low vigor trees. These low vigor trees, which may represent hosts with weakened defenses from drought, disease, other bark beetles, or other stressors, give rise to an endemic equilibrium in biologically plausible parameter ranges. The mechanistic nature of the model allows us to study how each model parameter affects the existence and size of the endemic equilibrium. We then show that under certain parameter shifts that are more likely under climate change, the endemic equilibrium can disappear entirely, leading to an outbreak.

Publisher

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

Reference49 articles.

1. Alfaro, R. I. , E. Campbell , and B. C. Hawkes (2010). Historical frequency, intensity and extent of mountain pine beetle disturbance in British Columbia. Vol. 2009-30. Mountain Pine Beetle Working Paper (PFC - Victoria). Victoria, British Columbia: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre.

2. Influence of fire and mountain pine beetle on the dynamics of lodgepole pine stands in British Columbia, Canada;Forest Ecology and Management. Disturbances in Mountain Forests: Implications for Management,2009

3. Assessing the consequences of global change for forest disturbance from herbivores and pathogens

4. Forest pests and their management in the Anthropocene

5. Lodgepole Pine and White Spruce Thinning in Alberta―A Review of North American and European Best Practices

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3