A Hybrid Simulation Model of HIV Program Interventions: From Transmission Behavior to Macroeconomic Impacts

Abstract

AbstractWhile several studies have examined the public health effects of HIV investments, there is a smaller literature that examines the macroeconomic impacts of such investments. The most recent efforts have utilized econometric analyses of country-level panel data, as well as demographic simulations of HIV spending. However, there are no studies that examine the linkages between the behavioral responses to public health investments, demographic changes, and, ultimately, macroeconomic performance. This study demonstrates the feasibility of such a linkage. We develop an agent-based simulation model (ABM) of a Peer Navigator Program to support engagement in HIV therapy in Tanzania. Results from the ABM are weighted to reflect the Tanzania population and fed into the SPECTRUM model. This generates detailed demographic forecasts that are translated into macroeconomic impacts using labor force participation rates from the International Labor Organization, along with an econometric model of gross domestic product (GDP). Although the simulated effects of the Peer Navigator Program in Tanzania are small, the paper demonstrates the feasibility of linking behavioral ABM simulations of program impacts to subsequent demographic effects and, finally, macroeconomic performance.