A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more on-going transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015

Abstract

AbstractTuberculosis (TB) is a major public health threat, including in low TB incidence countries, through a combination of imported infection and onward transmission. Using data from the Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance system in the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands (NL) Tuberculosis Register, we developed a mathematical model of TB importation and transmission in low-incidence settings. We apply this method to compare the effective reproduction number for TB, the contribution of importation and the role of superspreaders in the UK and the NL. We estimate that on average, between 2010 and 2015, a TB case generated 0·41(0·30,0·60) secondary cases in the UK, and 0·24(0·14,0·48) secondary cases in the NL. A majority of cases did not generate any secondary cases. Recent transmission accounted for 26% (21%,36%) of UK cases and 19%(11%,31%) of NL cases. We predict that reducing UK transmission rates to those observed in NL would result in 538(266,818) fewer cases annually in the UK. This methodology reveals common transmission mechanisms across two low-incidence countries and can be applied to other settings. Control policies aimed at limiting spread have a role to play in eliminating TB in low incidence countries.