Bounding the levels of transmissibility & immune evasion of the Omicron variant in South Africa-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Bounding the levels of transmissibility & immune evasion of the Omicron variant in South Africa

Published:2021-12-21 Issue: Volume: Page:
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Pearson Carl A. B.^ORCID,Silal Sheetal P.^ORCID,Li Michael W.Z.^ORCID,Dushoff Jonathan^ORCID,Bolker Benjamin M.^ORCID,Abbott Sam^ORCID,van Schalkwyk Cari^ORCID,Davies Nicholas G.^ORCID,Barnard Rosanna C.^ORCID,Edmunds W. John^ORCID,Bingham Jeremy^ORCID,Meyer-Rath Gesine^ORCID,Jamieson Lise^ORCID,Glass Allison^ORCID,Wolter Nicole^ORCID,Govender Nevashan^ORCID,Stevens Wendy S.^ORCID,Scott Lesley^ORCID,Mlisana Koleka^ORCID,Moultrie Harry^ORCID,Pulliam Juliet R. C.^ORCID

Abstract

AbstractA new SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern, Omicron (B.1.1.529), has been identified based on genomic sequencing and epidemiological data in South Africa. Presumptive Omicron cases in South Africa have grown extremely rapidly, despite high prior exposure and moderate vaccination coverage. The available evidence suggests that Omicron spread is at least in part due to evasion of this immune protection, though Omicron may also exhibit higher intrinsic transmissibility. Using detailed laboratory and epidemiological data from South Africa, we estimate the constraints on these two characteristics of the new variant and their relationship. Our estimates and associated uncertainties provide essential information to inform projection and scenario modeling analyses, which are crucial planning tools for governments around the world.One Sentence SummaryWe report a region of plausibility for the relative transmissibility and immune escape characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant estimated by integrating laboratory and epidemiological data from South Africa.

Publisher

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

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