Confidence as a noisy decision reliability estimate

Abstract

Decisions vary in difficulty. Humans know this and typically report more confidence in easy than in difficult decisions. However, confidence reports do not perfectly track decision accuracy, but also reflect response biases and difficulty misjudgments. To isolate the quality of confidence reports, we developed a model of the decision-making process underlying choice-confidence data. In this model, confidence reflects a subject’s estimate of the reliability of their decision. The quality of this estimate is limited by the subject’s uncertainty about the uncertainty of the variable that informs their decision (“meta-uncertainty”). This model provides an accurate account of choice-confidence data across a broad range of perceptual and cognitive tasks, revealing that meta-uncertainty varies across subjects, is stable over time, generalizes across some domains, and can be manipulated experimentally. The model offers a parsimonious explanation for the computational processes that underlie and constrain the sense of confidence.