Abstract
AbstractA recent study tested 45 throat swabs taken from adults over age 30 who sought outpatient care at one of two central Wuhan hospitals for influenza-like-illness between December 30, 2019 and January 19, 2020. Although none were confirmed COVID-19 cases, nine retrospectively tested positive for the virus. Using the fact that Wuhan has 393 other hospitals, we extrapolate the total number of undetected cases of symptomatic COVID-19 in adults during this period. we estimate that there were 5,558 [95% CI: 2,761-9,864] adults with symptomatic COVID-19 infections in Wuhan between December 30th and January 19th, 2020.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Reference9 articles.
1. Report on Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia by Hubei Provincial Health Commission on January 23, 2020 [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Apr 17]. Available from: http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202001/t20200123_2014522.shtml
2. Kong W-H , Li Y , Peng M-W , Kong D-G , Yang X-B , Wang L , et al. SARS-CoV-2 detection in patients with influenza-like illness. Nat Microbiol [Internet]. 2020 Apr 7; Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41564-020-0713-1
3. Wu JT , Leung K , Bushman M , Kishore N , Niehus R , de Salazar PM , et al. Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China. Nat Med [Internet]. 2020 Mar 19; Available from: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0822-7
4. Zhanwei Du , Lin Wang , Simon Cauchemez , Xiaoke Xu , Xianwen Wang , Benjamin J. Cowling, et al. Risk for Transportation of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China. Emerging Infectious Disease journal [Internet]. 2020;26(5). Available from: https://www.nc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/20-0146_article
5. Li Q , Guan X , Wu P , Wang X , Zhou L , Tong Y , et al. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia. N Engl J Med [Internet]. 2020 Jan 29; Available from: https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316