Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate the numbers of symptomatic COVID-19 cases in Wuhan prior to the lockdown

Author:

Du Zhanwei,Cowling Benjamin J.,Meyers Lauren AncelORCID

Abstract

AbstractA recent study tested 45 throat swabs taken from adults over age 30 who sought outpatient care at one of two central Wuhan hospitals for influenza-like-illness between December 30, 2019 and January 19, 2020. Although none were confirmed COVID-19 cases, nine retrospectively tested positive for the virus. Using the fact that Wuhan has 393 other hospitals, we extrapolate the total number of undetected cases of symptomatic COVID-19 in adults during this period. we estimate that there were 5,558 [95% CI: 2,761-9,864] adults with symptomatic COVID-19 infections in Wuhan between December 30th and January 19th, 2020.

Publisher

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

Reference9 articles.

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