A surprising formula for the spread of Covid-19 under aggressive management

Abstract

AbstractWe propose an algebraic-type formula that describes with high accuracy the total number of detected infections for the Covid-19 pandemic in many countries. Our 2-phase formula can be used as a powerful forecasting tool. It is based on the author’s new theory of momentum management of epidemics; Bessel functions are employed. Its 3 parameters are the initial transmission rate, reflecting the viral fitness and “normal” frequency of contacts in the infected areas, and the intensity of prevention measures at phases 1, 2. Austria, Brazil, Germany, Japan, India, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, and the USA are considered. For the USA, all states are processed independently and some “interaction” is added; the forecasting software is provided.