COVID-19 in India: Predictions, Reproduction Number and Public Health Preparedness

Abstract

AbstractIntroductionThe COVID-19 has emerged as a global concern for public health due to large scale outbreak. The number of confirmed cases has also been increased in India in past few weeks. The predictions for the COVID-19 can provide insights into the epidemiology of the disease, which helps policymakers to check health system capacities.MethodsWe obtained data on daily confirmed, recovered and deaths cases for a period of 21 days and have implemented the exponential growth model to predict the future cases for all the three components. The mathematical model was used to calculate the average reproduction number and herd immunity. We estimated the number of active cases till 30th of April. We have also tried to analyze the public health capacity to combat COVID-19 in India.ResultsIf the exponential growth in number of cases continue then the total number of active cases will be 2,49,635 until the end of April. The reproduction number for COVID-19 in India was found to be 2.56 and herd immunity as 61%. The cumulative cases predicted by the mathematical model was 1,20,203.DiscussionThis prediction provides an alarming situation for India in terms of public health preparedness. The number of tests is needed to increase to detect all the cases of COVID-19 in India. Though some serious preventive measures have been implemented, but India should be ready to face any sudden community outbreak.