Immediate and Near Future Prediction of COVID-19 Patients in the U.S. Population Aged 65+ With the Prior Medical Conditions of Hypertension, Cardiovascular and Lung Diseases: Methods, Models and Acute Care Estimates

Abstract

AbstractImportanceGiven the rapid rise of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. during March 2020 there has been a severe burden on the health care systems and care providers in the country. The impact of the virus so far was higher on the population aged 65+. Hospitalizations were higher among those with underlying medical conditions, namely, hypertension, cardiovascular and lung diseases. Hence, to have an idea of the number of new COVID-19 infections among these high-risk populations that could occur in the short-term could assist promptly to the country’s health care system for immediate health care planning. These estimates may aid us in better understanding the potential volumes of patients requiring inpatient care.ObjectiveTo provide immediate and short-term model-based predictions of COVID-19 patients in the U.S. population aged 65+ during April-June, 2020, those with the prior medical conditions of hypertension, cardiovascular and lung diseases.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsWe developed age-structured dynamic mathematical combined with wavelet analysis to understand the number of new cases that may emerge in the U.S. population aged 65+. We have estimated the number of people aged 65+ who might have three underlying conditions mentioned and a possible number of hospitalizations among them due to COVID-19 if they get infected. We have used publicly available data sources for developing our framework and estimates.ResultsWe estimate that there are 13 million individuals aged 65+ who have one or a combination of three major prior medical conditions in the U.S. who need to be protected against COVID-19 to reduce a large number of hospitalizations and associated deaths. Hospitalizations of patients both with and without ICU-admissions with more prevalent underlying conditions could range between 31,633 (20,310 non-ICU hospitalizations and 11,323 ICU-admissions) to 94,666 (60,779 non-ICU hospitalizations and 33,866 ICU-admissions) cases during the same period. Under a rapid spread of the virus environment, these hospitalizations could be beyond 430,000 within the above three-month period.Conclusions and RelevanceCOVID-19 continues to dramatically and adversely affect the lives of people aged 65+ in the U.S. During the next three months which could result in thousands of hospitalizations if precautions against the virus spread are not implemented and adhered to.