Abstract
AbstractBackgroundThe objective of this paper is to model lost Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) from symptoms arising from COVID-19 in the UK population, including symptoms of ‘long-COVID’. The scope includes QALYs lost to symptoms, but not deaths, due to acute COVID-19 and long COVID.MethodsThe prevalence of symptomatic COVID-19, encompassing acute symptoms and long-COVID symptoms, was modelled using a decay function. Permanent injury as a result of COVID-19 infection, was modelled as a fixed prevalence. Both parts are combined to calculate QALY loss due to COVID-19 symptoms.ResultsAssuming a 60% final attack rate for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population, we modelled 299,719 QALYs lost within 1 year of infection (90% due to symptomatic COVID-19 and 10% permanent injury) and 557,754 QALYs lost within 10 years of infection (49% due to symptomatic COVID-19 and 51% due to permanent injury). The UK Government willingness-to-pay to avoid these QALY losses would be £17.9 billion and £32.2 billion, respectively. Additionally, 90,143 people were subject to permanent injury from COVID-19 (0.14% of the population).ConclusionGiven the ongoing development in information in this area, we present a model framework for calculating the health economic impacts of symptoms following SARS-CoV-2 infection. This model framework can aid in quantifying the adverse health impact of COVID-19, long COVID and permanent injury following COVID-19 in society and assist the proactive management of risk posed to health. Further research is needed using standardised measures of patient reported outcomes relevant to long COVID and applied at a population level.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Reference33 articles.
1. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China
2. World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Apr 24]. Available from: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
3. GOV. UK Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Dec 22]. Available from: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
4. NICE, SIGN, RCGP. COVID-19 rapid guideline: managing the long-term effects of COVID-19. London, Edinburgh; 2020.
5. Arnold DT , Hamilton FW , Milne A , Morley AJ , Viner J , Attwood M , et al. Patient outcomes after hospitalisation with COVID-19 and implications for follow-up: results from a prospective UK cohort. Thorax [Internet]. 2020 Dec 3;thoraxjnl-2020-216086. Available from: https://thorax.bmj.com/lookup/doi/10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216086
Cited by
2 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献