Intra-host evolution provides for continuous emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Abstract

Variants of concern (VOC) in SARS-CoV-2 refer to viral genomes that differ significantly from the ancestor virus and that show the potential for higher transmissibility and/or worse clinical progression. VOC have the potential to disrupt ongoing public health measures and vaccine efforts. Yet, little is known regarding how frequently different viral variants emerge and under what circumstances. We report a longitudinal study to determine the degree of SARS-CoV-2 sequence evolution in 94 COVID-19 cases and to estimate the frequency at which highly diverse variants emerge. 2 cases accumulated 9 single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) over a two-week period and 1 case accumulated 23 SNVs over a three-week period, including three non-synonymous mutations in the Spike protein (D138H, E554D, D614G). We estimate that in 2% of COVID cases, viral variants with multiple mutations, including in the Spike glycoprotein, can become the dominant strains in as little as one month of persistent in patient virus replication. This suggests the continued local emergence of VOC independent of travel patterns. Surveillance by sequencing for (i) viremic COVID-19 patients, (ii) patients suspected of re-infection, and (iii) patients with diminished immune function may offer broad public health benefits.