Intrinsic capacity predicts negative health outcomes in older adults

Abstract

AbstractBACKGROUNDMonitoring trajectories of intrinsic capacity (IC) in older adults has been suggested by the WHO as a means to inform prevention to avoid or delay negative health outcomes. Due to a lack of longitudinal studies, it is currently unclear how IC changes over time and whether repeatedly measured IC predicts negative health outcomes.METHODSBased on 4,751 repeated observations of IC (range=0-100) during 21 years of follow-up among 754 older adults 70+ years, we assessed longitudinal trajectories of IC, and whether time-varying IC predicted the risk of chronic ADL disability, long-term nursing home stay, and mortality using joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data.RESULTSAverage IC declined progressively from 77 to 11 points during follow-up, with substantial heterogeneity between older adults. Adjusted for socio-demographics and chronic diseases, a one-point lower IC value was associated with a 7% increase in the risk of ADL disability, a 6% increase in the risk of a nursing home stay, and a 5% increase in mortality. Accuracy for 5- and 10-year predictions based on up to three repeated measurements of IC ranged between moderate and good (AUC = 0.76-0.82).DISCUSSIONOur study indicates that IC declines progressively and that it predicts negative health outcomes among older adults. Therefore, regular monitoring of IC could work as an early warning system informing preventive efforts.