Indian Female Migrants Face Greater Barriers to Post-Covid Recovery than Males: Evidence from a Panel Study

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundIndia’s abrupt nationwide Covid-19 lockdown internally displaced millions of urban migrants, who made arduous journeys to distant rural homes. Documenting their labor market reintegration is a critical aspect of understanding the economic costs of the pandemic for India’s poor. In a country marked by low and declining female labor force participation, identifying gender gaps in labor market reintegration – as a marker of both women’s vulnerability at times of crisis and setbacks in women’s agency – is especially important. Yet most studies of pandemic-displaced Indian migrants are small, rely on highly selected convenience samples, and lack a gender focus.MethodsBeginning in April 2020 we enrolled roughly 4,600 displaced migrants who had returned to two of India’s poorest states into a panel survey, which tracked enrollees through July 2021. Survey respondents were randomly selected from the states’ official databases of return migrants, with sampling stratified by state and gender. 85 percent of enrollees (3,950) were working in urban areas prior to the pandemic. Our analysis focuses on a balanced panel of 1,780 workers who were interviewed three times through July 2021, considering labor market re-entry, earnings, and measures of vulnerability by gender.FindingsBoth men and women struggle to remigrate – by July 2021 (over a year after the nationwide lockdown ended), no more than 63 percent (95% CI [60,66]) of men and 55 percent [51,59] of women had left their home villages since returning. Initially, returning migrants transition from non-agricultural urban employment into agriculture and unemployment in rural areas. Alongside, incomes plummet, with both genders earning roughly 17 percent of their pre-lockdown incomes in July 2020. Remigration is critical to regaining income – male re-migrants report earnings on par with their pre-lockdown incomes by January 2021, while men remaining in rural areas earn only 23 percent [19,27] of their pre-pandemic income. Remigration benefits women to a lesser extent – female remigrants regain no more than 65 percent [57,73] of their pre-pandemic income at any point. This contrast reflects significantly higher rates of unemployment among women, both among those remaining in rural areas (9 percentage points [6,13] higher than men across waves) and among those who remigrate (13 percentage points [9,17] higher than men across waves). As a result, we observe gender gaps in well-being: female migrants were 7 percentage points [4,10] more likely to report reduced consumption of essential goods and fare 6 percentage points [4,7] worse on a food security index.InterpretationReturn migrants of both genders experienced persistent hardships for over a year after the initial pandemic lockdown. Female migrants fare worse, driven by both lower rates of remigration and lower rates of labor market re-entry both inside and outside home villages. Some women drop out of the labor force entirely, but most unemployed report seeking or being available to work. In short, pandemic-induced labor market displacement has far-reaching, long-term consequences for migrant workers, especially women.FundingSurvey costs were funded by research grants from IZA/FCDO Gender, Growth, and Labour Markets in Low Income Countries Programme, J-PAL Jobs and Opportunity Initiative, and the Evidence-based Measures of Empowerment for Research on Gender Equality (EMERGE) program at University of California San Diego. Funders had no role in study design, study implementation, data analysis, or manuscript preparation.Research in contextEvidence before this studyMost research documenting the experience of displaced domestic migrants during the pandemic is focused on difficulties faced in returning to their home villages and the immediate consequences of this displacement. Existing evidence has found high levels of short-run economic and psychological distress, especially among women and children, and under-coverage of government programs designed to ease the lockdown’s sudden economic shock.Added value of this studyThis study contributes to existing literature by surveying a large sample of male and female workers, designed to be broadly representative of returned migrants in two of India’s poorest states. Our work takes a longer-term view, tracking study participants’ efforts to remigrate and reintegrate into the labor force over 15 months. We document sustained difficulties attaining pre-pandemic levels of income and consumption insecurity, especially among women, who struggle even after remigrating.Implications of all the available evidenceTaken as a whole, the evidence underscores that displaced Indian migrants are a vulnerable and underserved social group, who have faced (and will likely continue to face) lasting negative effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Displaced migrants – and especially women – would likely benefit from programs designed to facilitate re-entry into urban labor markets; wrap around services that address other effects of the pandemic (e.g. psychological distress) may be particularly valuable.