Understanding the value of clinical symptoms of COVID-19. A logistic regression model

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundThe new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, is responsible for the current pandemic outbreak worldwide. However, there is limited information regarding the set of specific symptoms of COVID-19. Therefore, the objective of this study was to describe the main symptoms associated with COVID-19 to aid in the clinical diagnosis for the rapid identification of cases.Methods and findingsA cross sectional study of all those diagnosed by RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 between April 1 and May 24 in Argentina was conducted. The data includes clinical and demographic information from all subjects at the time of presentation, which were uploaded to the centralized national reporting system at health centers. A total of 67318 individuals were included in this study, where 12% tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. The study population was divided in two age groups, a group aged 0 to 55 years-old (<56 group), (median = 32, n=48748) and another group aged 56 to 103 years-old (≥56 group) (median =72, n=18570). Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that out of a total of 23 symptoms, only five were found to have a positive association with COVID-19: anosmia (odds ratio [OR] 10.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.20-13.10, <56 group; OR 6.09 CI 3.05-12.20, ≥56 group) dysgeusia (OR 3.67, CI 2.7-4.9, <56 group; OR 3.53 CI 1.52-8.18, ≥56 group), low grade fever (37.5-37.9° C) (OR 1.61, CI 1.20-2.05, <56 group; OR 1.80 CI 1.07-3.06, ≥56 group), cough (OR 1.20, CI 1.05-1.38, <56 group; OR 1.37 CI 1.04-1.80, ≥56 group) and headache only in <56 group (OR 1.71, CI 1.48-1.99). In turn, at the time of presentation, the symptoms associated with respiratory problems: chest pain, tachypnea, dyspnea, respiratory failure and use of accessory muscles for breathing, had a negative association with COVID-19 (OR <1) or did not present statistical relevance (OR = 1).With the intention of helping the clinical diagnosis, we designed a model to be able to identify possible cases of COVID-19. This model included 16 symptoms, the age and sex of the individuals, and was able to detect 80% of those infected with SARS-CoV-2 with a specificity of 46%.ConclusionsThe analysis of symptoms opens the opportunity for a guidance and improved symptoms based definition of suspected cases of COVID-19, where multiple factors (age, sex, symptoms and interaction between symptoms) are considered. We present a tool to help identify COVID-19 cases to provide quick information to aid decision-making by health personnel and program managers.