Isolation of infected people and their contacts is likely to be effective against many short-term epidemics

Abstract

ABSTRACTBackgroundIsolation of infected people and their contacts may be an effective way to control outbreaks of infectious disease, such as influenza and SARS-CoV-2. Models can provide insights into the efficacy of contact tracing, coupled with isolating or quarantining at risk people.MethodsWe developed an agent-based model and simulated 15, 000 short term illnesses, with varying characteristics. For each illness we ran ten simulations on the following scenarios: (1) No tracing or isolation (None), (2) isolation of agents who have tested positive (Isolation), (3) scenario 2 coupled with minimal contact tracing and quarantine of contacts (Minimum), (4) scenario 3 with more effective contact tracing (Moderate), and (5) perfect isolation of agents who test positive and perfect tracing and quarantine of all their contacts (Maximum).ResultsThe median total infections of the Isolation, Minimum, Moderate and Maximum scenarios were 80%, 40%, 17% and 4% of the no intervention scenario respectively.ConclusionsIsolation of infected patients and quarantine of their contacts, even if moderately well implemented, is likely to substantially reduce the number of infections in an outbreak. Randomized controlled trials to confirm these results in the real world and to analyse the cost effectiveness of contact tracing and isolation during coronavirus and influenza outbreaks are warranted.