Predicted Infection Risk for Aerosol Transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

AbstractCurrently, the respiratory route is seen as the most important transmission path for SARS-CoV-2. In this investigation, models of other researchers which had the aim of predicting an infection risk for exposed persons in a room through aerosols emitted by an infectious case-patient were extended. As a novelty – usually neglected – parameters or boundary conditions, namely the non-stationarity of aerosols and the half-life of the aerosolized virus, were included and a new method for determining the quanta emission rate based on measurements of the particle emission rate and respiratory rate at different types of activities was implemented.As a second step, the model was applied to twelve outbreaks to compare the predicted infection risk with the observed attack rate. To estimate a “credible interval” of the predicted infection risk, the quanta emission rate, the respiratory rate as well as the air volume flow were varied.In nine out of twelve outbreaks, the calculated predicted infection risk via aerosols was found to be in the range of the attack rate (with the variation of the boundary conditions) and reasons for the observed larger divergence were discussed.The validation was considered successful and therefore the use of the model could be recommended to predict the risk of an infection via aerosols in given situations. Furthermore, appropriate preventive measures can be designed.