Predictors of Death in Severe COVID-19 Patients at Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study

Abstract

ABSTRACTBackgroundAs the number of new cases and death due to COVID-19 is increasing, understanding the characteristics of severe COVID-19 patients and identifying characteristics that lead to death is a key to make an informed decision. In Ethiopia, as of September 27, 2020, a total of 72,700 cases and 1165 deaths were reported.ObjectiveThe study aimed to assess the determinants of death in Severe COVID-19 patients admitted to Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia.MethodsA case-control study of 147 Severe COVID-19 patients (49 deaths and 98 discharged alive cases) was conducted from August to September 2020. A comparison of underlying characteristics between cases (death) and controls (alive) was assessed using a chi-square test and an independent t-test with a p-value of <0.05 considered as having a statistically significant difference. Multivariable binary logistic regression was used to assess a statistically significant association between the predictor variables and outcome of Severe COVID-19 (Alive Vs Death) where Adjusted Odds ratio (AOR), 95% CIs for AOR, and P-values were used for testing significance and interpretation of results.ResultsHaving diabetes mellitus (AOR= 3.257, 95% CI= 1.348, 7.867, p-value=0.00), fever (AOR=0.328, 95% CI: 0.123, 0.878, p-value= 0.027) and Shortness of breath (AOR= 4.034, 95% CI= 1.481, 10.988, p-value=0.006) were found to be significant predictors of death in Severe COVID-19 patients.ConclusionsThe outcome of death in Severe COVID-19 patients is found to be associated with exposures to being diabetic and having SOB at admission. On the other hand, having a fever at admission was associated with a favorable outcome of being discharged alive.