A Numerical Study of the Current COVID-19 Spread Patterns in India, the USA and the World

Abstract

AbstractIn this article, we are going to study the current COVID-19 spread patterns in India and the United States. We are interested to show how the daily increase in the total number of cases in these two countries is affecting the COVID-19 spread pattern in the World. For the study, we have considered the cumulative total numbers of cases in India, the United States and the World. We have found that the situation in the United States is already on the threshold of a change towards retardation. In the World as a whole also we have observed that a similar conclusion can be made. In India, the situation can be expected to move towards betterment soon, and once that happens the situation in the World as a whole would start improving. We shall demonstrate that as long as the rate of change of the logarithm of the cumulative total number of cases with respect to time in a pandemic continues to reduce, the pattern of growth would continue to remain nearly exponential, and as soon as it is seen that the rate of change starts to become nearly constant the growth can be expected to start to change towards a nearly logarithmic pattern.