Is Covid-19 Mortality “Like the Flu”? A Cumulative Death Rates Comparison

Abstract

ABSTRACTIt has been common both to make and to resist comparisons that equate the Covid-19 pandemic to influenza. We take the comparison between Covid-19 and flu seriously by asking how many years of influenza and pneumonia deaths are needed for cumulative deaths to those two causes to equal the cumulative toll of the Covid-19 pandemic between March 2020 and February 2023—that is, three years of pandemic deaths. We find that in one state alone—Hawaii—three years of Covid-19 mortality is equivalent to influenza and pneumonia mortality in the three years preceding the Covid-19 pandemic. For all other states, at least nine years of flu and pneumonia are needed to match Covid-19; for the United States as a whole, seventeen years are needed; and for four states, more than 21 years (the maximum observable) are needed. These results provide an easy-to-understand calibration of flu as a heuristic for Covid-19, and vice versa.