Dengue in Cambodia 2002-2020: Cases, Characteristics and Capture by National Surveillance

Abstract

AbstractObjectiveData from 19 years of national dengue surveillance in Cambodia (2002-2020) were analyzed to describe trends in dengue case characteristics and incidence.MethodsGeneralized additive models were fitted to dengue case incidence and characteristics (mean age, case phenotype, fatality) over time. Dengue incidence in a pediatric cohort study (2018-2020) was compared to national data during the same period to evaluate disease under-estimation by national surveillance.FindingsDuring 2002-2020, there were 353,270 cases of dengue (average age-adjusted incidence 1.75 cases/ 1,000 persons/ year) recorded in Cambodia, with an estimated 2.1-fold increase in case incidence between 2002 and 2020 (slope = 0.0058, SE = 0.0021, p = 0.006). Mean age of infected individuals increased from 5.8 years in 2002 to 9.1 years in 2020 (slope = 0.18, SE = 0.088, p <0.001); case fatality rates decreased from 1.77% in 2002 to 0.10% in 2020 (slope = - 0.16, SE = 0.0050, p <0.001). When compared to cohort data, national data under-estimated clinically apparent dengue case incidence by 5.0-fold (95% CI 0.2 – 26.5), and overall dengue case incidence (both apparent and inapparent cases) by 33.6-fold (range: 18.7-53.6).ConclusionDengue incidence in Cambodia is increasing and disease is shifting to older pediatric populations. National surveillance continues to under-estimate case numbers. Future interventions should account for disease under-estimation and shifting demographics for scaling and to target appropriate age groups.