A New Vaccination Assessment Method and Strategy for COVID-19

Abstract

Optimizing vaccination to reduceCOVID-19death remains a challenge. A new method,Gompertzian Analysis, examines numbers of infectious disease cases and deaths, by age, on log graphs, capturingCOVID-19Lethality(Deaths/Cases) by theGompertz Mortality Equation.Gompertzian Analysisrevealed that each of the first 4Vaccination Events(primary and boosters) led to a ∼1/3rdreduction inCOVID-19Lethality. These vaccination reductions inCOVID-19Lethalitywere cumulative, persistent, and undiminished by variants, while vaccination’s impact onCOVID-19Infectivity(Cases/Population) was fleeting. Primary vaccination and 3 boosters gave an ∼85% reduction inCOVID-19Lethality, with projections suggesting ∼68% fewer deaths (∼267,000 to ∼85,000). Projections also suggest that 6 boosters may offer a ∼96% reduction inCOVID-19Lethality, to the familiar level of influenza, with a ∼91% reduction inCOVID-19deaths, to ∼25,000, fewer than automobile deaths.Gompertzian Analysisprovides rational vaccination guidelines by age.Gompertzian Analysispoints to a strategy molded by multiple vaccinations reducingCOVID-19Lethality, which is persistent, rather than focusing on reducingCOVID-19Infectivity, which is fleeting. Such a strategy, based on accumulating the necessary number of vaccinations (∼7), and possibly no more, would accept vaccination’s limited ability to prevent infection in exchange for its power to prevent death.