Abstract
AbstractHyalomma marginatumis an important tick species which is the main vector of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) and spotted fever. The species is predominantly distributed in parts of Southern Europe, North Africa and West Asia. However, due to ongoing climate change and increasing reports ofH. marginatumin central and northern Europe, the expansion of this range poses a potential future risk. In this study, we employed an Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) approach to model the current and future climatic suitability ofH. marginatum. Using high resolution climatic variables from the Chelsa dataset and an updated list of locations forH. marginatum, we constructed 2 models under current environmental conditions using MaxEnt: a more specific model for only current conditions, and a more general model for both current conditions and future projections under the ssp370 and ssp585 scenarios. Our models show that the climatically suitable region forH. marginatummatches the current distributional area in the Mediterranean basin and West Asia. When applied to future projections, our models suggest a considerable expansion ofH. marginatum’s range in the north in Europe as a result of rising temperatures. However, they also predict a decline in central Anatolia, potentially due to the exacerbation of drought conditions in that region.SubjectsEcology, Entomology, Epidemiology, Infectious Diseases, Climate Change Biology
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory