Construction of a risk prediction model of postoperative delirium in older patients undergoing spinal surgery: Protocol of a single-center observational cohort study

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundDelirium is an acute mental disorder and a common postoperative complication. Age is an independent marker of the development of postoperative delirium. In older patients, delirium leads to numerous detrimental effects. We will mainly explore the incidence and potential risk variables of postoperative delirium in older patients undergoing spinal surgery, focusing on some preoperative and intraoperative indicators.Study design and methodsThis single-center prospective, observational, cohort study will investigate the incidence of delirium in patients aged ≥65 years undergoing spinal surgery and construct a postoperative delirium risk prediction model. We will use potential multiple risk factors reported in recent studies. Follow-up starts on the first day after the operation, and delirium assessment is conducted until 7 days after the operation. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression will be used to filter variables, and logistic regression will be utilized to build a prediction model using the selected variables. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve will be used to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model. The clinical net benefit of the model will be evaluated using decision curve analysis.DiscussionThis study will construct a clinically effective model to predict the occurrence of postoperative delirium in older patients undergoing spinal surgery.