A scoping literature review of global dengue age-stratified seroprevalence data: estimating dengue force of infection in endemic countries

Abstract

AbstractDengue poses a significant burden worldwide, and a more comprehensive understanding of the heterogeneity in the intensity of dengue transmission within endemic countries is necessary to evaluate the potential impact of public health interventions.This scoping literature review aimed to update a previous study of dengue transmission intensity by collating global age-stratified dengue seroprevalence data published in the Medline and Embase databases from 2014 to 2022. These data were then utilized to calibrate catalytic models and estimate the force of infection (FOI), which is the yearly per-capita risk of infection for a typical susceptible individual.We found a total of 44 new publications containing 47 relevant datasets across 20 endemic countries. Together with the previously available average FOI estimates, there are now 280 dengue average FOI estimates obtained from seroprevalence data and 149 estimates obtained from case-notification data available across the world.The results showed large heterogeneities in average dengue FOI both across and within countries. These new estimates can be used to inform ongoing modelling efforts to improve our understanding of the drivers of heterogeneity in dengue transmission globally, which in turn can help inform the optimal implementation of public health interventions.Author summaryIn this work, we conducted a scoping literature review to collate global dengue age-specific seroprevalence data from dengue endemic areas published between 2014 and 2022. These data were used to calibrate mathematical models and estimate the average yearly force of infection (FOI), which is a fundamental measure of transmission intensity. FOI estimates can be used to quantify the risk of infection, disease burden and the potential impact of new interventions, such as vaccination.In addition, the FOI estimates generated in this study contribute to ongoing efforts to better characterise and map dengue transmission intensity worldwide.