Phenotypic plasticity is aligned with phenological adaptation on both micro- and macroevolutionary timescales

Abstract

AbstractIn seasonally-variable environments, phenotypic plasticity in phenology may be critical for adaptation to fluctuating environmental (temperature) conditions. Using an 18-generation longitudinal dataset from natural insect (damselfly) populations, we show that phenology has strongly advanced. Individual fitness data suggest this is likely an adaptive response towards a thermally-dependent fitness optimum. A laboratory experiment revealed that developmental plasticity qualitatively matches environmental-dependence of selection, partially explaining observed phenological advance. Expanding our analysis to the macroevolutionary level, we use a database of over 1-million occurrence records and spatiotemporally-matched temperature data from 49 Swedish Odonate species to infer macroevolutionary dynamics of phenology. Phenological plasticity was more closely aligned with adaptation for species that have recently colonized northern latitudes, with more phenological mismatch at lower latitudes. Our results show that phenological plasticity plays a key role in microevolutionary dynamics within a single species, and such plasticity may have facilitated post-Pleistocene range expansion in this insect clade.