Transmission dynamics and forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico, March 20-November 11, 2020

Abstract

AbstractMexico has experienced one of the highest COVID-19 death rates in the world. A delayed response towards implementation of social distancing interventions until late March 2020 and a phased reopening of the country in June 2020 has facilitated sustained disease transmission in the region. Here, we systematically generate and compare 30-day ahead forecasts using previously validated growth models based on mortality trends from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation for Mexico and Mexico City in near real-time. Moreover, we estimate reproduction numbers for SARS-CoV-2 based on methods that rely on genomic data as well as case incidence data. Subsequently, functional data analysis techniques are utilized to analyze the shapes of COVID-19 growth rate curves at the state level to characterize the spatial-temporal transmission patterns. The early estimates of reproduction number for Mexico were estimated between R∼1.1-from genomic and case incidence data. Moreover, the mean estimate of R has fluctuated ∼1.0 from late July till end of September 2020. The spatial analysis characterizes the state-level dynamics of COVID-19 into four groups with distinct epidemic trajectories. We found that the sequential mortality forecasts from the GLM and Richards model predict downward trends in the number of deaths for all thirteen forecasts periods for Mexico and Mexico City. The sub-epidemic and IHME models predict more realistic stable trajectory of COVID-19 mortality trends for the last three forecast periods (09/21-10/21 - 09/28-10/27) for Mexico and Mexico City. Our findings support the view that phenomenological models are useful tools for short-term epidemic forecasting albeit forecasts need to be interpreted with caution given the dynamic implementation and lifting of social distancing measures.