COVID-19 Spreading Dynamics with Vaccination – Allocation Strategy, Return to Normalcy and Vaccine Hesitancy

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn this work we use mathematical modeling to analyse the dynamics of COVID-19 spread after a vaccination program is initiated. The model used is a delay differential equation developed earlier by our group. Basis of currently available data, our principal findings are as follows. (a) For fastest deceleration of the pandemic, people with high interaction rate such as grocers and airline cabin crew should be given priority in vaccine access. (b) Individuals who have been vaccinated may be selectively cleared to return to normal activities without significant risk of a resurgence in cases. (c) If an infection as well as a vaccine confers immunity for a duration τ0, then the pandemic can be eliminated by vaccinating people at a sufficiently high rate. Unless τ0 is very small, the cutoff rate required appears feasible to achieve in practice. (d) The presence of a substantial minority of vaccine-hesitant population might not amount to a significant threat or even an inconvenience to a vaccine-compliant majority population.