Characterizing superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 : from mechanism to measurement

Abstract

AbstractSuperspreading is a ubiquitous feature of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, with a few primary infectors leading to a large proportion of secondary infections. Despite the superspreading events observed in previous coronavirus outbreaks, the mechanisms behind the phenomenon are still poorly understood. Here, we show that superspreading is largely driven by heterogeneity in contact behavior rather than heterogeneity in susceptibility or infectivity caused by biological factors. We find that highly heterogeneous contact behavior is required to produce the extreme superspreading estimated from recent COVID-19 outbreaks. However, we show that superspreading estimates are noisy and subject to biases in data collection and public health capacity, potentially leading to an overestimation of superspreading. These results suggest that superspreading for COVID-19 is substantial, but less than previously estimated. Our findings highlight the complexity inherent to quantitative measurement of epidemic dynamics and the necessity of robust theory to guide public health intervention.