Forecasting sub-national trends in COVID-19 vaccine uptake in the UK

Abstract

The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has begun to at-risk populations around the world. It is currently unclear whether rejection of the vaccine will pose challenges for achieving herd/community immunity either through large-scale rejection or localised pockets. Here we predict uptake of the vaccine at unprecedented spatial resolution across the UK using a large-scale survey of over 17,000 individuals. Although the majority of the UK population would likely take the vaccine, there is substantial heterogeneity in uptake intent across the UK. Large urban areas, including London and North West England, females, Black or Black British ethnicities, and Polish-speakers are among the least accepting. This study helps identify areas and socio-demographic groups where vaccination levels may not reach those levels required for herd immunity. Identifying clusters of non-vaccinators is extremely important in the context of achieving herd immunity as vaccination “cold-spots” can amplify epidemic spread and disproportionately increase vaccination levels required for herd protection.