Tropical forest dynamics correspond to fair games in economic theory of financial markets

Abstract

ABSTRACTEcological and economic systems both comprise of autonomous adaptive agents. It is thus possible that similar mechanisms determine the organization of both these complex systems. Indeed several economic theories have already been successfully applied in an ecological context. Here we show that ‘efficient market theory’ in economics, where future earnings are distributed between competitors by a ‘fair game’, corresponds to fitness-equalizing mechanisms of coexistence in ecology. In contrast to stabilizing mechanisms, which promote coexistence by giving each species an equilibrium abundance that is resilient to perturbations, equalizing mechanisms promote coexistence without such resilience by minimizing the net fitness differences between species. However, identifying stabilizing and equalizing mechanisms from the short time-series data that are typically available in ecology is challenging. We used techniques from economics that are applied to collections of short time-series from a system. We found that observed species abundance dynamics in a neotropical forest are generally in agreement with efficient market theory implying a dominant role of equalizing mechanisms, which finding quantifies and supports what was generally believed about that specific forest system. Our study highlights that complex systems from ecology and economics share common features suggesting the possibility of further synergy between ecology and economics in future.