Modeling the synergistic interplay between malaria dynamics, economic growth, and transient events

Abstract

AbstractThe mosquito-borne disease (malaria) imposes significant challenges on human health, healthcare systems, and economic growth/productivity. This study develops and analyzes a model to understand the interplay between malaria dynamics, economic growth, and transient events. The study uncovers varied effects of disease and economic parameters on model outcomes, highlighting the interdependence of the reproduction number (R0) on both disease and economic factors, and a reciprocal relationship where malaria diminishes economic productivity, while higher economic output is associated with reduced malaria prevalence. This emphasizes the intricate interplay between malaria dynamics and socio-economic factors. Also, the study offers insights into malaria control and underscores the significance of optimizing external aid allocation, especially favoring an even distribution strategy, with the most significant reduction observed in the equal monthly distribution strategy compared to longer distribution intervals. Furthermore, the study shows that controlling malaria in high mosquito biting areas with limited aid, low technology, inadequate treatment, or low economic investment is challenging. The model exhibits a backward bifurcation implying that sustainability of control and mitigation measures is essential even whenR0is slightly less than one. Additionally, there is a parameter regime for which long transients are feasible. Long transients are critical for predicting the behavior of dynamic systems and identifying factors influencing transitions; they reveal reservoirs of infection, vital for disease control. Policy recommendations include prioritizing sustained control measures, optimizing external aid allocation, and reducing mosquito biting for effective disease control.