Universal epidemic curve for COVID-19 and its usage for forecasting

Abstract

AbstractWe construct a universal epidemic curve for COVID-19 using the epidemic curves of eight nations that have reached saturation for the first phase, and then fit an eight-degree polynomial that passes through the universal curve. We take India’s epidemic curve up to September 22, 2020 and overlap it with the universal curve by minimizing square-root error. The constructed curve is used to forecast epidemic evolution up to January 1, 2021. The predictions of our model and those of supermodel for India are reasonably close to each other considering the uncertainties in data fitting.