Demystifying the spreading of pandemics I: The fractal kinetics SI model quantifies the dynamics of COVID-19

Abstract

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health crisis. The recently developed fractal kinetics susceptible-infected model was used for the analysis of the first COVID-19 wave data. The model was found to be in excellent agreement with the data. The “fractal” exponent of time is critical for the kinetics of the disease spreading since it captures the impact of the spatial related factors e.g. lockdowns, masks on the virus transmission. Estimates of the model parameters were derived from the epidemiological data of France, Greece, Italy and Spain. A universal law was established between the “fractal” exponent and the “apparent transmissibility constant” of the model. 173 countries were classified according to the fractal exponent and the asymptotic limit of the cumulative fraction of infected individuals.