The role of advective transport mechanism in continental-scale transport of fungal plant epidemics

Abstract

AbstractIn examining the continental-scale plant pathogen spread, we focus on the competition between the short-range stochastic hopping within the atmospheric boundary layer, and the laminar advection by the currents in the free troposphere. The latter is typically ignored, since it is assumed that the population of spores which have reached the troposphere is small, and the fraction of the remaining spores that survived the subsequent journey is negligible due to ultraviolet light and frigid temperatures. However, we claim that it is in fact a crucial mechanism for continental-scale spread. We argue that free tropospheric currents can not be ignored, even as the probability for spores to reach them and to survive within them approaches zero. In other words, models that neglect tropospheric advection are fragile – their predictions change qualitatively if this alternative transport channel becomes accessible – even when the rate at which spores actually make use of this transport channel approaches zero.