Author:
Shea Katriona,Borchering Rebecca K.,Probert William J.M.,Howerton Emily,Bogich Tiffany L.,Li Shouli,van Panhuis Willem G.,Viboud Cecile,Aguás Ricardo,Belov Artur,Bhargava Sanjana H.,Cavany Sean,Chang Joshua C.,Chen Cynthia,Chen Jinghui,Chen Shi,Chen YangQuan,Childs Lauren M.,Chow Carson C.,Crooker Isabel,Del Valle Sara Y.,España Guido,Fairchild Geoffrey,Gerkin Richard C.,Germann Timothy C.,Gu Quanquan,Guan Xiangyang,Guo Lihong,Hart Gregory R.,Hladish Thomas J.,Hupert Nathaniel,Janies Daniel,Kerr Cliff C.,Klein Daniel J.,Klein Eili,Lin Gary,Manore Carrie,Meyers Lauren Ancel,Mittler John,Mu Kunpeng,Núñez Rafael C.,Oidtman Rachel,Pasco Remy,Piontti Ana Pastore y,Paul Rajib,Pearson Carl A. B.,Perdomo Dianela R.,Perkins T Alex,Pierce Kelly,Pillai Alexander N.,Rael Rosalyn Cherie,Rosenfeld Katherine,Ross Chrysm Watson,Spencer Julie A.,Stoltzfus Arlin B.,Toh Kok Ben,Vattikuti Shashaank,Vespignani Alessandro,Wang Lingxiao,White Lisa,Xu Pan,Yang Yupeng,Yogurtcu Osman N.,Zhang Weitong,Zhao Yanting,Zou Difan,Ferrari Matthew,Pannell David,Tildesley Michael,Seifarth Jack,Johnson Elyse,Biggerstaff Matthew,Johansson Michael,Slayton Rachel B.,Levander John,Stazer Jeff,Salerno Jessica,Runge Michael C.
Abstract
AbstractPolicymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed. Up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening; non-essential business closures reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Intermediate reopening interventions identified no win-win situations; there was a trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures. Aggregate results captured twice the uncertainty of individual models, providing a more complete expression of risk for decision-making purposes.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory