Population health impacts and associated monetary gains from the taxation of salt and sugar in the United Kingdom

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundPoor diets contribute significantly and increasingly to the burden of chronic diseases in the United Kingdom, impacting both health and the economy. The introduction of fiscal measures that target unhealthy foods can provide a near-unique opportunity to achieve shifts towards healthier diets while raising ring-fenced revenue for spending on healthcare.ObjectiveTo estimate the expected health and economic benefits from the reduction in consumption of salt and sugar that could be expected from the introduction of a proposed £3/kg tax on sugar and a £6/kg tax on salt.MethodsLife-table modelling was used to estimate the expected health and economic benefits from the reduction in consumption of salt and sugar for four scenarios, each reflecting different manufacturer and consumer responses the proposed tax. Relative risks for 24 different disease-risk pairs were applied, exploring direct and indirect pathways between salt and sugar consumption, and mortality and morbidity.ResultsThe results show that life expectancy in the UK could be increased by 1.7 and nearly 5 months, depending on the degree of industry and consumer response to the tax. The tax could also lead to almost 2 million fewer cases of preventable chronic diseases with additional economic benefits of approximately £27 to £78 billion from avoided ill-health over 25 years. The largest health benefits would accrue from reduced mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular diseases.ConclusionsSignificant benefits to both population health and the economy could be expected from extending the current tax on sugar sweetened beverages to other sugary foods and from adding a tax on foods high in salt. The proposed dietary changes are likely to be insufficient to reach national public health targets for obesity and chronic disease prevention; hence, additional measures to reduce the burden of chronic disease in the UK will be equally critical to consider.