Classifying the risk for myasthenic crisis using data-driven explainable machine learning with informative feature design and variance control – a pilot study

Author:

Bershan Sivan,Meisel AndreasORCID,Mergenthaler PhilippORCID

Abstract

AbstractImportanceMyasthenic crisis (MC) is a critical progression of Myasthenia gravis (MG), requiring intensive care treatment and invasive therapies. Classifying patients at high-risk for MC facilitates treatment decisions and helps prevent disease progression.ObjectiveTo test whether machine learning models trained with real-world routine clinical data can aid precisely identifying MG patients at risk for MC.DesignThis is a pseudo-prospective cohort study of MG patients presenting since January 2010.SettingSingle center.ParticipantsA cohort of 51 MG patients was used for model training based on a defined set of real-world clinical data. The cohort was created from a convenience sample of 13 MC patients matched based on sex, five-year age band, antibody status, thymus pathology with MG patients who had not suffered an MC. Data analyses and model refinements were performed from June 2022 to May 2023.ExposureClassification of MG patients to high or low risk for MC using Lasso regression or random forest machine learning models.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe accuracy of the risk classification was assessed by patient.ResultsThis study included 51 MG patients (13 MC, 38 non-MC; median age MC group 70.5, non-MC group 65.5). The mean cross-validated AUC classifying MG patients as high or low risk for MC based on simple or compound features derived from real-world routine clinical data showed a predictive accuracy of 68.8% for the regularized Lasso regression and of 76.5% for the random forest model. Feature importance scores suggest that multimorbidity may play a role in risk classification. Different thresholds were applied to tune model performance to optimal parameters. Studying result stability across 100 runs further indicated that the random forest model was better suited to cope with feature variance. Studying feature importance across 5100 model runs identified explainable features to distinguish MG patients at high or low risk for MC.Conclusions and RelevanceIn this study, feasibility of classifying risk for MC based on real-world routine clinical data using machine learning was shown. The models showed accurate and consistent performance indicating the utility of personalized risk assessment in MG patients using machine learning models.Key PointsQuestionCan machine learning models be used to classify Myasthenia gravis patients into groups at high or low risk for myasthenic crisis with high precision based on explainable data-driven features derived from real-world clinical data?FindingsIn this pseudo-prospective study of 51 Myasthenia gravis patients, the risk of myasthenic crisis using real-world clinical data was accurately classified employing two machine learning models with explainable features.MeaningThese findings suggest that it is possible to classify the risk for myasthenic crisis in patients based on real-world clinical data with high precision.

Publisher

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

Cited by 2 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3